CSIRO outlines the technologies and costs shaping Australia’s complex, cross-sector energy transition.
Australia is known globally as a technology pioneer, with many innovations in medical, computing, manufacturing, mining and fintech industries developed on these shores.
Think Google Maps, Afterpay, the Cochlear implant, the cervical cancer vaccine and Wi-Fi, the latter of which was invented by Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO.
The next big thing is always around the corner, and CSIRO understands that research, development and demonstration (RD&D) has a critical role to play in facilitating the energy transition.
This is why the agency has developed a report exploring the RD&D opportunities on offer for various sectors critical to industrial decarbonisation, such as electricity, low-carbon fuels, transport, carbon management and mining-adjacent industries such as iron and steelmaking.
When asked what inspired The State of Energy Transition Technologies report, CSIRO’s director of energy, Dr Dietmar Tourbier, was clear on CSIRO’s vision.
“The energy transition is extremely complex,” he told Energy. “And Australia’s puzzle is quite unique in terms of its distinct landscape, industrial mix, and what needs to be done.
“But when we look at technologies and then go one step further into what’s needed, it’s quite opaque, and stakeholders are often faced with fragmented, competing or conflicting information.
“At the same time, these technologies need RD&D to bring down their costs and effectively integrate them into Australia’s energy system.
“We set out to provide objective and transparent analysis of technologies, levelised costs and RD&D opportunities to support Australia’s energy transition and create a resource that people can use to make decisions based on their own context.”
Electricity
The transition of Australia’s electricity industry is already underway and how this sector adopts new decarbonisation technologies will inherently influence the direction of other industries.
“Electrification and the use of renewables underpin many of Australia’s cross-sectoral decarbonisation strategies and will require the deployment and integration of technologies and infrastructure at an accelerated pace,” the report states.
“However, Australia’s electricity system is unique, spanning both interconnected and isolated grids, servicing both high-density urban centres and sparsely populated regions.”
CSIRO understands that Australia requires more than just the deployment of low-emission electricity technologies; universal access and reliability at affordable prices for all consumers is required, which must be achieved through careful and collaborative technology integration, modelling and planning.
CSIRO senior manager and report co-author Melissa Craig. Image: CSIRO
When asked about a key RD&D opportunity for the electricity industry, CSIRO senior manager and report co-author, Melissa Craig, discussed storage in its various forms.
“Energy storage technologies are rapidly evolving, meaning decision makers need more information to determine the best technology for their use case, particularly for longer duration storage,” she told Energy.
“Batteries and pumped hydro might come to mind first, but there are other technologies that could meet industry demands.”
“For example, geologically dependent long-duration energy storage technologies, like underground hydrogen or compressed air energy storage (CAES), are an important area of opportunity for Australia given our expertise in oil and gas and mining.”
CAES involves compressing and storing ambient air underground. When required, the compressed air is released to drive a turbine, generating electricity.
Important RD&D opportunities for CAES, CSIRO explains, include improving site selection and geological characterisation, and advanced engineering considerations like the impacts of compressed air on natural reservoirs.
The maturity of various electricity technologies. TRL = technology readiness level and CRI = commercial readiness index.
Low-carbon fuels
The development of sustainable and low-cost hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic fuels, collectively known as low carbon fuels (LCFs), is a clear RD&D pathway for Australia, which facilitates cross-sectoral decarbonisation strategies where fuel is required.
CSIRO’s report highlights that not all applications can be easily electrified and explains the importance of low carbon gaseous and liquid fuels, particularly for freight, aviation, mining and construction industries.
However, their adoption is “hindered by high costs” and requires investment in “new production, storage and end-use infrastructure and technologies”.
For hydrogen to be commercially de-risked, for example, production-related RD&D has a significant role to play. This includes a focus on different electrolysis systems and associated RD&D opportunities to reduce costs and improve efficiency through optimised cell designs, enhanced stack durability, and by using waste heat to lower electrical energy demand.
Natural accumulations of hydrogen in subsurface reservoirs could provide another source of fuel.
Craig said while natural hydrogen has potential in Australia, RD&D is required to explore for and discover these natural hydrogen accumulations and optimise the production of hydrogen from them.
The report also focuses on the importance of LCF storage and transport.
“The molecular size of hydrogen is very small, meaning gas can escape if the right materials aren’t used, making materials development a key RD&D focus area,” Craig said.
“This has implications, because LCFs need to be transported and stored to act as fuel for vehicles and vessels.”
The maturity of various low-carbon fuel technologies. TRL = technology readiness level and CRI = commercial readiness index.
Transport
The Australian transport sector is expansive, spanning road, aviation, rail and maritime modes, which increases the RD&D opportunities available and the complexity of deployment.
When considering Australia’s diverse passenger and freight requirements, the report focuses on advancing battery and fuel cell technologies, alongside the integration of robust charging and hydrogen infrastructure, to improve the safety and performance of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and the development and deployment of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (hydrogen FCEVs).
In aviation, RD&D will need to improve the efficiency of producing drop-in biofuels and synfuel for existing aircraft.
CSIRO associate director and report co-author Vivek Srinivasan. Image: CSIRO
CSIRO associate director and report co-author Vivek Srinivasan said the need for RD&D to reduce costs will be critical for technology commercialisation.
“The cost story is significant in transport, particularly for sectors such as shipping where low-emission technologies are not forecast to be cost competitive with current carbon-based options,” Srinivasan said.
“For low-emission technologies such as methanol and ammonia combustion engines, you’d have to cut forecast 2050 costs nearly in half for them to be competitive with today’s oil-driven engines. RD&D will be critical in closing this gap.”
The story is positive in some subsectors where low-emission technologies are forecast to be cost competitive, such as battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell locomotives for rail freight.
Srinivasan highlighted the inherent complexity of Australia’s road transport ecosystem as basis for continued RD&D.
“Australia has many heavy road truck movements, moving goods from South Australia and Victoria to the north, for example, or from major cities to communities and export hubs in Queensland and Western Australia,” he said.
“And some of these trucks are going to regional and remote areas, carrying important food or goods for communities and industry.”
Srinivasan said practical deployment of low-emission road transport technologies must factor in everything from the length and direction of trips to route infrastructure.
The effective deployment and widespread adoption of BEVs and hydrogen FCEVs can only be achieved if supporting infrastructure such as charging systems and refuelling stations are rolled out.
“While there might be potentially competitive solutions available to the road transport sector, to develop viable options, we must think about the system holistically and understand what works where,” he said.
“RD&D will play a critical role in planning out the system more broadly where new low-emission technologies are integrated.”
Ammonia and methanol combustion technologies remain more expensive than marine gas oil, even with CO2 emission costs. c/tkm = cents/tonne – km.
Industry
The mining industry contributes significantly to Australia’s GDP, exports and employment, but is also one of Australia’s largest emissions contributors.
This section of The State of Energy Transition Technologies report explores a “mixture of mining sub-sectors”, including iron and steelmaking, the use of medium-temperature process steam in alumina refining, and mining heavy haulage.
Analysis shows there’s still a road ahead to commercialise decarbonisation technologies.
“We looked at 14 technologies across three sub-sectors and only three of them are currently commercially deployable – natural gas direct reduced iron (DRI), electric arc furnaces for iron and steelmaking and low-temperature electric boilers for medium-temperature process team,” Craig said.
“This means 11 technologies require investment to both develop them at pilot or small scale, and then demonstrate them with Australian raw materials, such as our iron ore for steelmaking or bauxite for alumina.”
Various iron and steelmaking technologies explored include oxygen blast furnace (oxyBF) and basic oxygen furnace (BOF) for brownfield applications, and direct-reduced iron (both natural gas- and hydrogen-driven), electric smelting furnace and electric arc furnace for greenfield applications.
For alumina decarbonisation, the report covers electric, hydrogen and biomass combustion boilers, and thermal energy storage with electricity input and heat output (eTESh) systems, while heavy haulage, like other transport sub-sectors, explores battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies.
The maturity of various technologies in mining sub-sectors. TRL = technology readiness level and CRI = commercial readiness index.
Carbon management
Effective carbon management is needed to support the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate industries, reduce Australia’s emissions and reach net-zero targets by 2050.
The national science agency explores carbon capture, storage and utilisation as a three-pronged pathway to managing greenhouse gas emissions associated with hydrocarbon fuels and manufacturing of plastics, chemicals, steel and concrete.
Carbon capture garners the most attention in The State of Energy Transition Technologies, with Srinivasan underlining the importance of simultaneously maturing and scaling up earlier-stage technologies while aggressively bringing down costs.
“We know we need to scale carbon capture technologies,” Srinivasan said. “They will play an important role in industrial decarbonisation, synthetic fuel production and carbon dioxide removal, among other applications.”
Advancing point source capture and direct air capture (DAC) technologies will be critical to achieving emissions reduction goals, with RD&D to focus on improving point source reactor design and materials, while exploring modular plant designs and the integration of waste heat could help reduce the costs of emerging DAC technologies.
A tech resource
Srinivasan said The State of Energy Transition Technologies report isn’t about picking winners.
“This is particularly important given the complexity of low-emission technology development and deployment across industries,” he said. “Industries must be empowered to make informed RD&D decisions about specific technologies that will reduce their carbon footprint.”
CSIRO earmarked 43 technologies in the report, acknowledging that some solutions didn’t meet its criteria.
“We understand that there are other low-emission technologies that we didn’t look at, such as hybrid cars or fossil-based hydrogen, because of the criteria we set,” Craig said. “These areas are being actively researched and will still likely form part of the technology mix as we transition.”
One of the first samples of a quantum battery, a potential game-changer for the future of energy storage. Image: CSIRO
Srinivasan said that he was seeing “a lot of progress” in abatement solutions in the electricity and LCF sectors, with work being done “on some of the most challenging applications” in industry and transport.
“We’re heading in the right direction, but there’s still a lot of work to do,” he said. “Many novel technologies and innovations developed in Australia are adopted overseas, so we have belief in Australia’s capability.”
“But one of our messages is ensuring that we’re making clear decisions at the pilot and demonstration phase, so developers are focused on either ruling solutions out earlier or helping them flourish.”
Given Australia’s recognised RD&D capability and the potential to deliver cross-sectoral benefits, low-emission technology development could be rapidly expedited if Australia seizes the opportunity.
And in The State of Energy Transition Technologies, developers will know they have a resource to go back to, where specific RD&D opportunities and levelised costs are clearly outlined.
This feature will appear in the March edition of Energy.
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